A Third Majority
May 23, 2007
On Tuesday May 22, 2007 Gary Doer and the Manitoba NDP did just what most political analysts predicted they would: they cruised to a third straight majority term.
And what surprises could be expected from a party that has been in power for eight years and has a leader that polls higher than practically any other premier in Canada? For some, they would probably say that it was the ease of which they earned their victory – taking 36 of the 57 available seats.
There is a tendency in politics for the electorate to tire of a particular government around the ten-year mark, regardless of how they are performing. People eventually just want change almost for change’s sake. Any mistakes a government does make after being in power for a few terms are often magnified so significantly that they sometimes lead to electoral defeat. But the NDP under Gary Doer have made few key errors. When they have made tactical missteps they have retreated strategically and regrouped.
Another factor that contributes to a long-serving government’s downfall is a vigorous opposition. Certainly with the dumping of Stuart Murray and the annointment of Hugh McFadyen as leader, Progressive Conservatives and others hoped and expected to see a significant improvement in their fortunes. Granted this was McFadyen’s first election as leader – Doer lost three times before he won – but the PCs under his leadership never seemed to find a way to engage the electorate. An obviously bold announcement like bringing the Jets back to Winnipeg was only met with disbelief and even ridicule by most, as it just didn’t seem to be a credible promise. In a way, this was a lot like Gary Filmon’s billion dollar tax cut pledge in his last election. No matter how much people might want the NHL back in Winnipeg, if they don’t think it’s a realistic commitment it will only backfire and most likely hurt the party rather than give it a boost.
The NDP governments under Gary Doer seem to have found a way to give everyone just enough of what they want – some incremental tax cuts for the business community, social programs for activists and interest groups, significant investments and expenditures in health care and infrastructure. By keeping most of the electorate relatively satisfied, and with the absence of any real opposition, it’s no surprise that the NDP coasted to a third consecutive majority. If things keep going their way, it doesn’t seem crazy to think that a fourth is a possibility as well. And with McFadyen’s comments about needing to curtail civil service wage increases, that certainly doesn’t sound like a bad thing.
Comments
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I am looking forward to going forward, not back, for the next 4 years!
Kevin - -0001-11-30 00:00
It was well earned. The great thing about our democracy is Manitobans always gets what they want. The Tories are dead in the water. I think Doer would be wise to stick around and try and make it 4 . Because he will get it.
JimCotton - -0001-11-30 00:00
4 could be a reality. Would 5 be a bit of a stretch?
annonymous - 2007-05-24 23:11
If the PC party keeps going down the road it's going , 5 would not be a stretch. I think Gary would be getting a little old by the time the 5th term came around.
JimCotton - 2007-05-25 10:58